The USA failed to qualify for the last World Cup finals but have a good chance of making it to Qatar. They are second in their qualifying group and travel to Mexico who are third. The top four automatically qualify for Qatar with the fifth placed side (currently Panama) going into the inter-confederation play-off. The USA are four points behind leaders Canada with three games to go. They are only above Mexico on goal difference but four points clear of Panama. With Panama playing at home to Honduras (bottom of the group and yet to win a game), the USA can't afford to lose this game. That's highlighted even more by the fact their next game is Panama at home. The Americans do not have a good away record at all in this group. Their only win was at Honduras and they have lost in both Canada and Panama. 16 points from six home games is why they are second in the table. Four of their five away group games have had under 2.5 goals scored in them.
Mexico have Honduras away and El Salvador at home after this game, so should be able to do enough to qualify. They are also strong at home with three wins and two draws so far in this group. Their most recent qualifier was an important 1-0 home win over Panama putting four points between them and their opponents. Only 14 goals have been scored by Mexico in their 11 games in this group with 11 conceded. At home, three of their five games have had under 2.5 goals scored in them. Overall it's seven out of 11 qualifiers that have seen the under 2.5 goals stat come up. This should be a tight match and the tip is for under 2.5 goals to be scored.