A bad week in November of last year saw Portugal draw in Ireland and then lose to Serbia. That last minute winner for the Serbs left Portugal in second place in their group and heading into the play-offs. The winners of this home semi-final against Turkey take on either Italy or North Macedonia in the final, so look for at least one major nation failing to make it to Qatar. Portugal haven't played since November but that loss to Serbia ended a run of six games unbeaten with four clean sheets. The loss to Serbia ended an unbeaten run of 19 games at home in World Cup qualifiers.
Turkey had a disastrous Euro 2020 and could only finish second in their World Cup qualifying group behind the Netherlands. They won four of their five away qualifiers but lost 6-1 in the Netherlands. Turkey had to come from behind to beat Montenegro in their final qualifier and with Norway earning only a point from their last two group games, they secured second place. Their European Championship campaign was a nightmare with losses to Italy, Wales and Switzerland and conceding eight goals, while scoring just once. The odds are against them here and the tip is for a Portugal home victory.