Schalke 04 v Hoffenheim Betting Tips [14 October 2022]

Schalke will look to move out of the relegation zone when they host Hoffenheim at the Veltins-Arena for the first fixture of matchday 10 in the German Bundesliga. The hosts have struggled for consistency since winning promotion back into the German top flight last season and have managed only one win in their opening nine league fixtures. Their 1-3-5 record sees them sitting 16th in the standings on six points and are two points behind Leverkusen and Hertha. Schalke is coming off a heavy 4-0 away defeat to Leverkusen in their last outing, a result that has now made it three consecutive Bundesliga defeats with only two goals scored and eight conceded during that stretch. Their opponents come into this fixture sitting in a solid seventh-place in the table with four wins, two draws and three defeats from their first nine fixtures. Hoffenheim is coming off a disappointing 2-1 home loss to Werder Bremen in their last outing, making it games on the trot without a win.

While Schalke have struggled as we near the 1/3rd mark in the Bundesliga season, there have been encouraging signs from Frank Kramer’s men when playing on home soil. The Royal Blues have seen their paltry 0.71 expected goals tally on the road rise to a respectable 1.50 xG in front of the home fans. Likewise, on the defensive end Schalke have seen a significant drop in their expected goals allowed. Opponents have been creating 2.11 xG when hosting Schalke compared to 1.60 xG when visiting the Veltins-Arena. These home and away discrepancies also ring true for Hoffenheim, who are creating almost a full 1 goal less in expected goals away from home than they are at home. This has, naturally, directly impacted Die Kraichgauer’s attacking output as the away side with Hoffenheim have only managed to find the net five times compared to getting on the scoresheet nine times at home.

We’re going to back Schalke on the +0.5 Asian Handicap to get a result in this one at home. This works the same as a double chance bet, meaning a home draw or a win will cash our bet, but sometimes books will offer better odds on the +0.5 line. Schalke’s advanced metrics have not looked bad at all when playing at the Veltins-Arena and it’s likely just a matter of time before they start putting up some improved results on home soil. This also presents a very decent public fade type of play as the betting public will likely be hesitant to back Schalke after conceding seven goals while being shutout over their past two matches. The hosts are live underdogs here and it wouldn’t come as a surprise if they were to walk away with the full three points on Friday.